The hottest photovoltaic China model is not as fas

Photovoltaic "China mode": going fast is not as good as going steady

in 2013, China's photovoltaic industry ushered in an unprecedented rush to install. It is expected that the annual photovoltaic installed capacity will be about 8GW, which may be close to 10GW under optimistic circumstances. For China's photovoltaic market in 2014, the national energy administration has set the tone that the construction scale of photovoltaic power generation in 2014 will be increased by 20% to 12gw, including 8GW of distributed photovoltaic power and 4gw of photovoltaic power stations, without light abandonment and power restriction. Vishar Shah, a research analyst at Deutsche Bank, even believes that this figure can reach GW in 2014

recall that at the beginning of the "12th Five Year Plan" in 2011, China set the installed PV capacity at 5GW during the "12th Five Year Plan", and now the installed PV capacity can exceed 10GW in one year. China's photovoltaic development cannot but call it fast, and behind this "fast" is not the result of market promotion, that is, the "hot" policy, and the government's helpless support to save the market

China's photovoltaic industry is developing too fast and too unstable

China's photovoltaic industry is developing rapidly, and its development path seems to be similar to economic development. It pays too much attention to its own industry, without overall planning from a strategic height and the overall situation, which is the biggest drawback of China's photovoltaic development

from the reform and opening up to 2010, the average growth rate of China's GDP was 9.91% in three parts. In order to develop the economy, the government covets speed and ignores many social problems, resulting in prominent contradictions in the economic structure and unbalanced development between urban and rural areas and regions. At the same time, the mode of economic growth is extensive, energy consumption is high, environmental pollution is serious, and some prominent problems involving the interests of the masses (food and drug safety, medical services, education fees, safe production, etc.) are not well solved. At present, the social problems and class contradictions brought about by economic development have been very acute

on China's photovoltaic industry, the explosive growth has no rules to follow. Under the guise of strategic emerging industries, photovoltaic enterprises and local governments pay close attention to national financial subsidies, and seriously ignore the two groups of electricity and consumers. Under the premise that the distributed photovoltaic power generation mode has not been straightened out, we will continue to entertain ourselves

first, the electrical structure cannot support the photovoltaic "great leap forward"

the development of large-scale ground-based power stations must be synchronized with the construction of electricity. At present, China's photovoltaic is mainly based on ground-based power stations. The rush of major enterprises to install in the western region is not to be sure to let the power stations merge immediately, but to catch the last bus of the policy. In this process, the quality of the power station can be ignored, and the photovoltaic power station can also be symbolically merged. As long as the power station is built and the electricity is connected, you can get a subsidy of 1 yuan/kWh. The quality of power stations can be improved slowly, and the problem of power rationing can also be solved slowly, which is probably the most true portrayal of large-scale photovoltaic power stations in the western region. From the side, this is also a loophole in China's policy, which allows enterprises to take advantage of it

the vigorous rush to install photovoltaic power generation systems in the western region is actually a manifestation of China's too impetuous photovoltaic industry. The number of ground power stations is moving forward in line with the policy, and there will naturally be many hidden dangers. It is understood that at present, Xinjiang is rushing to install more than 100 projects, but due to power constraints, the merger rate of these projects is only about 20% by the end of the year. In other words, many projects can be realized, but most projects will be in the state of power abandonment in the short term. In addition, the rush loading of large-scale ground power stations generally occurs in winter. The weather in the western region is extremely cold, and the winter construction is against the scientific law of load measurement: the construction quality will definitely be reduced by adopting the behavior of 0.05% FS high stability and high-precision spoke tension and pressure sensor

Zhou Fengqi, the former director of the Energy Research Institute of the national development and Reform Commission, once pointed out that the large-scale application of photovoltaic power generation involves the problem of energy transformation. The traditional combined heat and power supply mode is adopted for thermal power generation in northern China. In the heating season, thermal power generation cannot stop, and only new energy sources such as photovoltaic and wind energy can be limited. Therefore, if thermal power cannot stop, the high proportion of new energy power generation cannot be achieved

second, the distributed problem is very large, and its practicability needs to be tested

in 2013, China started the construction of a leading batch of distributed demonstration projects to build 749mw distributed photovoltaic systems within the year, but by 2014, the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaic systems has been increased to 8GW, and the government planning does not seem to take into account the difficulties of investment enterprises. In the field of distribution, investors will face greater risks than large-scale ground power stations. They should not only consider national policies, but also consider the default of enterprises in the demonstration park

the Chinese government is about to issue distributed implementation rules, which may solve the problems of distributed generation subsidies, financing, measurement, etc., but the distributed self use model is actually a behavior between enterprises. The government can ensure that subsidies outside the distribution are issued in time, but it has no strong binding force on the transactions between enterprises. For example, with the implementation of the self use model, enterprises in the demonstration park have actually become buyers of electricity, and they have sufficient default capital. These enterprises can delay payment, and even default when the economic benefits are depressed; Enterprises in the park may be forced to sublet or transfer. If the enterprise legal person changes within the 25 year operation cycle of the photovoltaic power station, whether it agrees to continue renting the roof and whether it is willing to continue to purchase new energy power are major issues that may arise

in addition, photovoltaic power generation has great instability and is also seriously affected by the weather. For many enterprises that implement the "three shifts" 24-hour working system, if photovoltaic power generation does not have a certain energy storage system, they have to face the embarrassment of using photovoltaic power generation during the day and thermal power generation at night. At the same time, when the rainy season comes, the whole photovoltaic power generation may continuously fail to meet the needs of the industrial park, with great uncertainty

the average life span of Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises is only 3.5 years, and the average life span of group enterprises is only 7-8 years. Enterprise bankruptcy is a common thing, and the commencement of enterprises is also different. Therefore, for photovoltaic power station investors, it is impossible for them to accurately estimate the profitability of a project, which is also an important reason why investors are difficult to finance and private capital is unwilling to enter the photovoltaic industry, In the end, many funds still have to come from CDB

from the perspective of the enterprise itself, if the author is an entrepreneur, if photovoltaic power generation is consistent with the industrial electricity price, and photovoltaic power generation can not achieve stable supply, the author really can't find a reason to use photovoltaic power generation, he will be more inclined to buy electricity from power companies, but for the enterprise, time means benefit

further analysis, the fact that power enterprises dare not default on the national electricity costs does not mean that they dare not default on the photovoltaic investors' costs. After all, photovoltaic power generation cannot completely replace electric power supply. Photovoltaic power generation has become a standby or auxiliary way for enterprises in the park to inject fresh blood into enterprises. If there is a wrangling phenomenon, photovoltaic system investors are at an absolute disadvantage, because they do not have the right to choose consumers. Photovoltaic power is either purchased by enterprises or sold. Once a large number of new energy power is sold, the return on investment of photovoltaic power generation will become unprotected

"China model" cannot repeat the mistakes of manufacturing industry

the fundamental reason for China's excess photovoltaic capacity is the excessive expansion of enterprises, and the more important reason is the lack of macro-control at the national level. The government can't always engage in "afterthought". When the industry expands to a certain extent and enterprises are in trouble, the corresponding access conditions for photovoltaic manufacturing industry will be introduced. To be sure, the decline of photovoltaic capacity is caused by market reshuffle and competition, which has little to do with the policy. The policy has scruples about social stability and local tax issues, but it is unable to cope in a chaotic industry

therefore, the Chinese government should solve the problems existing in the photovoltaic terminal market in a timely manner and develop steadily. When a large number of enterprises invest in photovoltaic power stations, the government still considers stability and cannot make certain adjustments. The "China model" cannot repeat the mistakes of manufacturing and maintaining its oil-free industry. I hope China's photovoltaic development can slow down! Zhonghua glass () Department